Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 22.016051 25.060547 28.342617 32.140073 36.409040 41.055965 46.493718
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.505509 21.626850 26.411189 32.360642 39.545003 47.924171 58.420991
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.214787 19.808186 25.397885 32.672785 41.860590 53.045912 67.659960
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 13.198200 18.006239 24.107755 32.375399 43.236968 56.965096 75.569705
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.880929 16.877683 23.451739 32.672538 45.200132 61.545141 84.390584
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.061437 16.295128 23.407361 33.695165 48.095858 67.420299 95.174865
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.942499 15.162321 22.476945 33.370270 49.053085 70.660003 102.491659
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 8.589515 13.550266 20.713463 31.687884 47.923421 70.868028 105.507033
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 8.103379 13.169621 20.680012 32.474742 50.342166 76.156161 115.959710
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.688423 12.852426 20.700221 33.315486 52.855547 81.674652 126.997115
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.076385 12.165810 20.093338 33.134226 53.781531 84.858077 134.685753
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.468845 11.430072 19.345749 32.662207 54.198309 87.253848 141.251400
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.009541 10.912138 18.923216 32.702754 55.460179 91.070864 150.317182
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.680612 10.587842 18.791451 33.203826 57.485412 96.181912 161.685683
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.334850 10.200430 18.517285 33.432245 59.050673 100.605514 172.131652
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.935858 9.681647 17.975831 33.157892 59.740051 103.619311 180.402274
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.665855 9.374191 17.775907 33.452038 61.394378 108.275562 191.576555
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 4.531282 9.308325 17.998175 34.500683 64.403757 115.329429 207.094131
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 4.208547 8.853331 17.477928 34.167480 64.942647 118.189921 215.571806
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 3.729661 8.050055 16.251952 32.447817 62.877682 116.426943 215.924505
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 3.612501 7.962669 16.371681 33.252177 65.454758 122.906571 231.031113
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 3.508354 7.892816 16.518232 34.111740 68.172281 129.749182 247.076315
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.291071 7.567758 16.140435 33.926422 68.902952 133.031166 256.827877